EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq

Ahmed Muhamad Omer () and Mehmet Yeşiltaş
Additional contact information
Ahmed Muhamad Omer: Institute of Graduate Studies and Research, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Cyprus International University
Mehmet Yeşiltaş: Cyprus International University

Portuguese Economic Journal, 2020, vol. 19, issue 3, No 8, 322 pages

Abstract: Abstract Recent political instabilities in the Middle East have led to strong negative impacts on the tourism sector. The aim of this study is to investigate the extent and the impact of political instability on tourism development in Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI). The impact of previous wars and incidents including the most recent events by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on tourism demand is quantitatively evaluated. Unit roots and structural breaks are detected relating political instabilities with significant tourist declines. A systematic comparison on the effect of terrorist attacks and wars on tourist arrivals is performed by employing a multiple regression model using monthly time series data from January 2003 to September 2018. The analysis revealed stronger negative impact of wars in comparison to terrorist attacks. The novelty of this study lies in its ability to establish that the impacts of war have far reaching consequences that last for at least three consecutive years as compared to short negative effects of terrorist attacks. Our findings imply that political instability, especially wars, leads to large safety concerns in the tourist destinations.

Keywords: War; Terrorism; Safety; Tourism demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10258-020-00178-0 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:portec:v:19:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10258-020-00178-0

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/10258/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s10258-020-00178-0

Access Statistics for this article

Portuguese Economic Journal is currently edited by Luís F. Costa

More articles in Portuguese Economic Journal from Springer, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().

 
Page updated 2020-09-19
Handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:19:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10258-020-00178-0