Does the Russia-Ukraine war cause exchange rate depreciation? Evidence from the rouble exchange rate

Haibo Jia (), Hao Yun () and Khalid Khan ()
Additional contact information
Haibo Jia: North China University of Technology
Hao Yun: Beijing Forestry University
Khalid Khan: Qingdao Hengxing University of Science and Technology

Portuguese Economic Journal, 2025, vol. 24, issue 2, No 3, 225-239

Abstract: Abstract This paper aims to examine the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the USD/RUB rate. The outcome reveals that war has severe adverse consequences for the USD/RUB rate. It implies that the exchange rate witnessed rapid depreciation following the outbreak of war in February 2022. The findings suggest a significant deviation from the predicted value and show that the USD/RUB exchange rate consistently remained lower than would have been anticipated in the absence of the conflict. On the other hand, the regression discontinuity method supports the finding that the USD/RUB exchange rate has significantly depreciated after the war. The study indicates that war has increased uncertainty and affects exchange rates, causing a noticeable difference between predicted and actual rates. These findings highlight the significance of contingency planning, efficient disaster management, access to market information, and accurate predictive modeling.

Keywords: Exchange rate; Russia-Ukraine conflict; Causal inference; Depreciation; Counterfactual; E44; E66; G18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10258-024-00260-x Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:portec:v:24:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10258-024-00260-x

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/10258/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s10258-024-00260-x

Access Statistics for this article

Portuguese Economic Journal is currently edited by Luís F. Costa

More articles in Portuguese Economic Journal from Springer, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().