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A mathematical approach to study and forecast racial groups interactions: deterministic modeling and scenario method

Goran Dominioni (), Addolorata Marasco () and Alessandro Romano ()
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Goran Dominioni: Erasmus University Rotterdam
Addolorata Marasco: University of Naples Federico II
Alessandro Romano: China University of Political Science and Law

Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 2018, vol. 52, issue 4, 1929-1956

Abstract: Abstract Globalization and migratory fluxes are increasing the ethnic and racial diversity within many countries. Therefore, describing social dynamics requires models that are apt to capture multi-groups interactions. Building on the assumption of a relationship between multi-racial dynamics and socioeconomic status (SES), we introduce an aggregate, contextual, and continuous index of SES accounting for measures of income, employment, expected life, and group numerosity. After, taking into account that groups’ SES assumes the form of a logit model, we propose a Lotka–Volterra system to study and forecast the interaction among racial groups. Last, we apply our methodology to describe the racial dynamics in the US society. In particular, we study the kind and the intensity of Asians–Blacks–Natives–Whites interactions in the US between 2002 and 2013. Moreover, we forecast the evolution of groups’ SES and how interracial relations will unfold between 2013 and 2018 and in three alternative stylized scenarios.

Keywords: Racial interactions; Deterministic modeling; Scenario method; Logit model; Lotka–Volterra systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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