The dual attitudinal dynamics of public opinion: an agent-based reformulation of L. F. Richardson’s war-moods model

Katsuma Mitsutsuji () and Susumu Yamakage ()
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Katsuma Mitsutsuji: Tokyo University of Science
Susumu Yamakage: The University of Tokyo

Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 2020, vol. 54, issue 2, No 6, 439-461

Abstract: Abstract This study proposes a new model of public opinion dynamics, focused specifically on attitudes toward war. The model consists of citizen-agents who have dual (public and private) attitudes. While they change the two levels of attitude according to different rules of two-layered interactions with neighboring agents, they also change their own attitudes internally. Our model shows that public opinion has “meta-stable” states, which generate overlapping, or two-valued, stable states. This characteristic can explain how public opinion responds to the outbreak and continuation of war very differently, not just in our model, but also in the opinions of European citizens on the First World War and those of American citizens on U.S. wars after the Second World War.

Keywords: Public opinion; War-fever; Rally-effect; Agent-based simulation; Opinion dynamics; International relations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11135-019-00938-x

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