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Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?

Gizem Uzuner () and Sudeshna Ghosh ()
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Gizem Uzuner: Istanbul Gelisim University
Sudeshna Ghosh: Scottish Church College, 1&3 Urquhart Square, University of Calcutta

Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 2021, vol. 55, issue 5, No 2, 1579 pages

Abstract: Abstract In this study, the asymmetric Granger causality relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty index is examined by controlling inflation, consumer confidence index, and industrial production for the period 2000M1 and 2020M1 in Italy. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is one of the few studies to investigate the relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty in an asymmetric framework. The empirical results show that using the Granger causality test in a linear framework causes bias results due to misspecification. Therefore, the study relies on asymmetric Granger causality test results which reveal that the positive shock of world pandemic uncertainty Granger causes a negative shock of tourist arrivals. It is suggested that international tourist arrivals are sensitive to external shocks such as pandemics and in such instances the government of the concerned country can insulate the tourism-service and hospitality industry against the shocks by developing strategies to promote full information between all stakeholders.

Keywords: Pandemics; COVID-19; Tourism; World uncertainty index; Inflation; Consumer confidence index; Industrial production; Italy; Z3; E23; E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11135-020-01074-7

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