A new grey system approach to forecast closing price of Bitcoin, Bionic, Cardano, Dogecoin, Ethereum, XRP Cryptocurrencies

Pawan Kumar Singh (), Alok Kumar Pandey () and S. C. Bose ()
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Pawan Kumar Singh: Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology
Alok Kumar Pandey: Banaras Hindu University
S. C. Bose: Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology

Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 2023, vol. 57, issue 3, No 21, 2429-2446

Abstract: Abstract The current study uses the grey forecasting model, EGM (1, 1, α, θ), a generalized form of the classical, even form of grey forecasting approach, to forecast the closing price of Bitcoin (BTC), Bionic (BNC), Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE), Ethereum (ETH), XRP (XRP) of cryptocurrencies based on the data from September 19, 2021, to September 29, 2021. The forecast was generated for September 30, 2021–October 07, 2021. Study revealed that the generalized model’s forecast accuracy is generally better than that of the classical model. The results are also compared with Linear Regression and Exponential Regression. This superiority results from using real past data in long-term forecasting, while the iterative forecasting approach uses the predicted values. Since forecast values are important in guiding future investments, decision-makers must consider various forecasting methods and select the best forecast performance after analyzing the comparative performance.

Keywords: Grey system theory; Cryptocurrencies; Prediction; Time-series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C18 C22 E52 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11135-022-01463-0

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