Dynamic effecting factors of air travel demand: an econometric analysis

Tuğba Dayioglu () and Serdar Alnipak
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Tuğba Dayioglu: Nisantasi University
Serdar Alnipak: Nisantasi University

Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 2023, vol. 57, issue 4, No 36, 3713-3727

Abstract: Abstract Civil aviation sector is of great importance for all countries. Besides, demand estimation of air passengers is crucial for every part of air industry. It is used for marketing, determining policies, pricing, making decisions on investments and more. This paper presents an econometric model to estimate air travel demand for 10 major European region countries which have high number of airline passengers by using panel regression model. Countries were determined based on data availability of the variables. Authors tried to determine the effects of independent variables as “purchasing power parities”, “net direct investment”, “population”, “GDP per capita”, “consumer prices (transport)”, “exchange rates”, “commercial aircraft fleet”, “number of tourism enterprises” and “urban population rate” on demand. The model is estimated using panel data for 10 countries over a period from 2009 to 2018. The results also suggest that the countries’ GDP values effect the air passenger demand. Besides countries should make investments in more aircraft fleet size to promote their civil aviation sector which is of great importance for the European economy.

Keywords: Air passenger demand forecasting; Logistics management; Aviation management; Panel econometrics; Endogeneity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11135-022-01457-y

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