Contextual factors influencing election results in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Péter Reményi (), Haris Gekić (), Aida Bidžan-Gekić () and Dávid Sümeghy ()
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Péter Reményi: University of Pécs
Haris Gekić: University of Sarajevo
Aida Bidžan-Gekić: University of Sarajevo
Dávid Sümeghy: University of Pécs

Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 2023, vol. 57, issue 6, No 35, 5693-5712

Abstract: Abstract Electoral geography tends to focus on the impact of geographical context on electoral behavior recently and challenges the classical compositional approach. We analyze spatial contextual factors of the 2018 general elections of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the linear regression models based on the fault line theory result in wrong estimations in several municipalities, not fitting into the national pattern. Using spatial modelling, it is confirmed that the strong territorial base of Bosnian parties is shaped by spatial dependence and spatial spillover effects. In addition to the spillover effect of individual party performance, the indirect neighbourhood role of ethnicity, sectoral structure and education was also shown in some cases.

Keywords: Bosnia and Herzegovina; Contextual effect; Electoral geography; Ethnic party; Spatial spillover; Spatial modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11135-023-01622-x

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