Inflation, earnings forecasts, and post-earnings announcement drift

Sudipta Basu (), Stanimir Markov () and Lakshmanan Shivakumar ()
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Sudipta Basu: Temple University
Stanimir Markov: The University of Texas at Dallas
Lakshmanan Shivakumar: London Business School

Review of Accounting Studies, 2010, vol. 15, issue 2, No 7, 403-440

Abstract: Abstract We examine whether financial analysts fully incorporate expected inflation in their earnings forecasts for individual stocks. We find that expected inflation proxies, such as lagged inflation and inflation forecasts from the Michigan Survey of Consumers, predict the future earnings change of a portfolio long in high inflation exposure firms and short in low or negative inflation exposure firms, but analysts do not fully adjust for this relation. Analysts’ earnings forecast errors can be predicted using expected inflation proxies, and these systematic forecast errors are related to future stock returns. Overall, our evidence is consistent with the Chordia and Shivakumar (J Account Res 43(4):521–556, 2005) hypothesis that the post-earnings announcement drift is related to investor underestimation of the impact of expected inflation on future earnings change.

Keywords: Inefficiency; Standardized unexpected earnings (SUE); Macroeconomic information; Market anomaly; Inflation expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 E31 G14 G29 M41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1007/s11142-009-9112-9

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