Implications of heterogeneous SIR models for analyses of COVID-19

Glenn Ellison ()
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Glenn Ellison: Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Review of Economic Design, 2024, vol. 28, issue 4, No 3, 687 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper provides a quick survey of results on the classic SIR model and variants allowing for heterogeneity in contact rates. It notes that calibrating the classic model to data generated by a heterogeneous model can lead to forecasts that are biased in several ways and to understatement of the forecast uncertainty. Among the biases are that we may underestimate how quickly herd immunity might be reached, underestimate differences across regions, and have biased estimates of the impact of endogenous and policy-driven social distancing.

Keywords: SIR models; Homophily; COVID-19; Epidemiology; Contact heterogeneity; Herd immunity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D85 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10058-024-00355-z

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