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Changes in the Number and Age–Sex Structure of the Population of the Siberian Federal District And Its Regions in 1989–2017: Assessment of Consequences and Risks

S. V. Soboleva (), N. E. Smirnova and O. V. Chudaeva
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S. V. Soboleva: Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences
N. E. Smirnova: Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences
O. V. Chudaeva: Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences

Regional Research of Russia, 2020, vol. 10, issue 2, 220-234

Abstract: Abstract A comparative analysis is presented for the dynamics of the number and age–sex structure of the population in the Siberian Federal District and its regions in the context of modern Russian trends. The consequences of the dynamics and risks for socioeconomic development in the future are assessed. The research method consisted of multiregional demographic analysis of time series. The study distinguished between urban and rural populations; its information base was Rosstat data for 1989–2017. It is shown that against a general decrease in the Siberian Federal District population, especially in rural areas, negative trends in the age–sex structure were manifested as a decrease in the number and share of the population younger than working age, a transition from an increase in the working-age population to a more rapid decrease compared to Russia in general, and a growing rate of increase in the number and share of the population older than working age. This leads to aging of the entire population and the working-age population, an increase in the dependency ratio on the working-age population, gender asymmetry, and decrease in the number and aging of women of reproductive age. Such long-term changes pose a threat not only to the demographic potential, but also to socioeconomic development and the future of both the region and the entire country.

Keywords: depopulation; migration outflow; age–sex structure of the population; birth rate; life expectancy; aging of the population; dependency ratio; replacement rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1134/S2079970520020136

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