Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Russia: Regional Projection

B. V. Nikitin () and N. Yu. Zamyatina ()
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B. V. Nikitin: Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University
N. Yu. Zamyatina: Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University

Regional Research of Russia, 2023, vol. 13, issue 2, 271-286

Abstract: Abstract Studies of the COVID-19 pandemic have repeatedly demonstrated that the role of spatial factors in the transmission of infection is significant. However, there is no universal spatial model thoroughly describing COVID-19 spread patterns. The paper proposes an original view on the centre-periphery model: regions are classified according to settlement pattern (static component) and openness (closedness) (dynamic component) characterising intensity of inter-regional human interactions (population flows). A total of 8 types of Russian regions are distinguished by the parameters of openness (closedness), population density and average size of a settlement. The course of the pandemic in the regions is analysed using the monthly trend of excess mortality, divided into three waves (acute phases) of COVID-19 spread. Empirical evidence shows that regions differ significantly in terms of the impact of the pandemic. Polarisation is the highest in the first wave, suggesting a greater role for spatial factors in the early stages of coronavirus outbreak. During the second and third waves, differences between regions begin to level out, probably influenced by internal socio-cultural and economic factors. The COVID-19 pandemic in the Russian regions allows us to rethink the traditional hierarchical concept of centre-periphery space. New dimensions are emerging: in addition to classical centres, there are remote frontier regions with similar functionality. Alongside the periphery is the outback (glubinka), close to the centre but paradoxically almost unaffected by its influence.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; centre-periphery model; human interactions; transport openness; settlement pattern; Russian regions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1134/S2079970523700703

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