Assessing the Impact of External Effects on Trade in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District

G. D. Kovaleva () and A. V. Kostin ()
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G. D. Kovaleva: Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering
A. V. Kostin: Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering

Regional Research of Russia, 2018, vol. 8, issue 4, 354-363

Abstract: Abstract The article presents a model-level verification of the hypothesis about the impact on foreign trade in the regions of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) and Russia made by oil prices in the world market, the ruble exchange rate, and anti-Russian sanctions. The results of research into the dynamics of foreign trade, its commodity structure, and regional specifics are outlined. An independent result is the experience of using iterative multiple stepwise regression, making it possible to identify a significant set of contributing factors and to estimate their role in inducing changes in the dependent variable. It is shown that the sanctions have not radically affected foreign trade. An impact on some SFD regions has been identified, but for the aggregate trade of the district, no influence from sanctions was revealed.

Keywords: Siberian Federal District; foreign trade; dynamic regional export–import models; world prices; exchange rate; sanctions; stepwise regression analysis; correlations; risks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1134/S2079970518040044

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