Forecasting the trend of international scientific collaboration

S. Varun Shrivats and Sujit Bhattacharya ()
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S. Varun Shrivats: CSIR-National Institute of Science Technology and Development Studies
Sujit Bhattacharya: CSIR-National Institute of Science Technology and Development Studies

Scientometrics, 2014, vol. 101, issue 3, No 19, 1954 pages

Abstract: Abstract The study demonstrates an integrated method of forecasting the trend of a country’s publications. In this context the paper examines international collaboration in a country’s overall publication and forecasts its future trend. The integrated method is based on regression and scaling relationship. India is taken as a case study for this examination. The study shows some interesting features of India’s publication pattern based on time-series data. One observes exponential nature of her publication growth from 2002 onwards. International collaboration also exhibits exponential growth roughly from the same period. Also one observes the faster growth of international collaborative papers than the overall growth of research papers. The study predicts values of number of internationally collaborative papers for the years 2015 and 2020. The robustness of the method is also demonstrated.

Keywords: Technology forecasting; International collaboration; Exponential growth models; Scaling relationship; India (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C00 C01 C02 Y10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11192-014-1364-x

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