A simple interpretation of the growth of scientific/technological research impact leading to hype-type evolution curves

Marco Campani and Ruggero Vaglio ()
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Marco Campani: CNR Istituti SPIN, IOM e NANO
Ruggero Vaglio: Università di Napoli Federico II, Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo

Scientometrics, 2015, vol. 103, issue 1, No 4, 75-83

Abstract: Abstract The empirical and theoretical justification of Gartner “hype curves” is a very relevant open question in the field of Technological Life Cycle analysis. The scope of the present paper is to introduce a simple model describing the growth of scientific/technological research impact, in the specific case where science is the main source of a new idea driving a technological development, leading to “hype-type” evolution curves. The main idea of the model is that, in a first stage, the growth of the scientific interest of a new specific field (as can be measured by publication numbers) basically follows the classical “logistic” growth curve. At a second stage, starting at a later trigger time, the technological development based on that scientific idea (as can be measured by patent deposits) can be described as the integral (in a mathematical sense) of the first curve, since technology is based on the overall accumulated scientific knowledge. The model is preliminary tested through a bibliometric analysis of the publication and patent deposit rate for organic light emitting diodes scientific research and technology.

Keywords: Hype curves; Bibliometrics; Research impact (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11192-015-1533-6

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