An approach for modelling and forecasting research activity related to an emerging technology

Iñaki Bildosola (), Pilar Gonzalez and Paz Moral
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Iñaki Bildosola: University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU)
Pilar Gonzalez: University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU)
Paz Moral: University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU)

Scientometrics, 2017, vol. 112, issue 1, No 29, 557-572

Abstract: Abstract The understanding of emerging technologies and the analysis of their development pose a great challenge for decision makers, as being able to assess and forecast technological change enables them to make the most of it. There is a whole field of research focused on this area, called technology forecasting, in which bibliometrics plays an important role. Within that framework, this paper presents a forecasting approach focused on a specific field of technology forecasting: research activity related to an emerging technology. This approach is based on four research fields—bibliometrics, text mining, time series modelling and time series forecasting—and is structured in five interlinked steps that generate a continuous flow of information. The main milestone is the generation of time series that measure the level of research activity and can be used for forecasting. The usefulness of this approach is shown by applying it to an emerging technology: cloud computing. The results enable the technology to be structured into five main sub-technologies which are characterised through five time series. Time series analysis of the trends related to each sub-technology shows that Privacy and Security has been the most active sub-technology to date in this area and is expected to maintain its level of interest in the near future.

Keywords: Technology forecasting; Research-activity forecasting; Bibliometrics; Text mining; Trend analysis; Structural time series models; 37M10; 62-07; 62H25 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C38 C51 C53 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11192-017-2381-3

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