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NHST is still logically flawed

Jesper W. Schneider ()
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Jesper W. Schneider: Aarhus University

Scientometrics, 2018, vol. 115, issue 1, 627-635

Abstract: Abstract In this elaborate response to Wu (in Scientometrics, 2018), I maintain that null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is logically flawed. Wu (2018) disagrees with this claim presented in Schneider (in Scientometrics 102(1):411–432, 2015). In this response, I examine the claim in more depth and demonstrate that since NHST is based on one conditional probability alone and framed in a probabilistic modus tollens framework of reasoning, it is by definition logically invalid. I also argue that disregarding this logically fallacy, as most researchers do, and treating the p value as a heuristic value for dichotomous decisions against the null hypothesis, is a risky business that often leads to false-positive claims.

Keywords: Null hypothesis significance test; Statistical inference; p values; Conditional probability; Inference logic; Modus tollens (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:115:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-018-2655-4