COVID-19 and the scientific publishing system: growth, open access and scientific fields

Gabriela F. Nane (), Nicolas Robinson-Garcia (), François Schalkwyk () and Daniel Torres-Salinas ()
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Gabriela F. Nane: Delft University of Technology
Nicolas Robinson-Garcia: University of Granada
François Schalkwyk: Stellenbosch University
Daniel Torres-Salinas: University of Granada

Scientometrics, 2023, vol. 128, issue 1, No 15, 345-362

Abstract: Abstract We model the growth of scientific literature related to COVID-19 and forecast the expected growth from 1 June 2021. Considering the significant scientific and financial efforts made by the research community to find solutions to end the COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented volume of scientific outputs is being produced. This questions the capacity of scientists, politicians and citizens to maintain infrastructure, digest content and take scientifically informed decisions. A crucial aspect is to make predictions to prepare for such a large corpus of scientific literature. Here we base our predictions on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing models using the Dimensions database. This source has the particularity of including in the metadata information on the date in which papers were indexed. We present global predictions, plus predictions in three specific settings: by type of access (Open Access), by domain-specific repository (SSRN and MedRxiv) and by several research fields. We conclude by discussing our findings.

Keywords: COVID-19; Scientific publications; Growth of science; Dimensions; Open access (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11192-022-04536-x

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