Popper’s probability calculus and the decline of scientific disruptiveness

Lutz Bornmann () and Russell J. Funk ()
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Lutz Bornmann: Administrative Headquarters of the Max Planck Society
Russell J. Funk: University of Minnesota

Scientometrics, 2025, vol. 130, issue 8, No 23, 4807 pages

Abstract: Abstract Research suggests that the disruptiveness of scientific research has declined over recent decades. Several explanations have been published for the decrease. In this paper, we add another explanation based on a probability calculus for explaining progress in science from the philosopher of science Karl Popper.

Keywords: Disruption index; CD index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11192-025-05404-0

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