The Current Impact Factor and the long-term impact of scientific journals by discipline: A logistic diffusion model estimation

Claudia Contreras, Gonzalo Edwards and Alejandra Mizala ()
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Claudia Contreras: Chilean Observatory of Science, Technology and Innovation (KAWAX), Bicentennial Program of Science and Technology (PBCT), National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research in Chile (CONICYT)
Gonzalo Edwards: Institute of Economics of the Catholic University of Chile

Scientometrics, 2006, vol. 69, issue 3, No 14, 689-696

Abstract: Summary This paper estimates the long-term impact of journals aggregated in 24 different fields, using a simple logistic diffusion model, and relates the results to the current impact factor. Results show that while the current and the long-term impact factors have a high correlation coefficient, some fields are systematically slower-moving than others, as they often differ in the proportion of the overall impact through time that occurs in the short term.

Date: 2006
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DOI: 10.1007/s11192-006-0165-2

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