Time series of scientific growth in Spanish doctoral theses (1848–2009)

Antonio Fernández-Cano (), Manuel Torralbo () and Mónica Vallejo ()
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Antonio Fernández-Cano: University of Granada
Manuel Torralbo: University of Córdoba
Mónica Vallejo: University of Murcia

Scientometrics, 2012, vol. 91, issue 1, No 2, 15-36

Abstract: Abstract This article analyses scientific growth time series using data for Spanish doctoral theses from 1848 to 2009, retrieved from national databases and an in-depth archive search. Data are classified into subseries by historical periods. The analytical techniques employed range from visual analysis of deterministic graphs to curve-fitting with exponential smoothing and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average models. Forecasts are made using the best model. The main finding is that Spanish output of doctoral theses appears to fit a quasi-logistic growth model in line with Price’s predictions. An additional control variable termed year-on-year General Welfare is shown to modulate scientific growth, especially in the historical period from 1899 to 1939.

Keywords: Time series; Scientific growth; Doctoral theses; Exponential smoothing; ARIMA models; Spain; Modulatory variable (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11192-011-0572-x

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