The output effects of tax changes: narrative evidence from Spain
Javier Pérez () and
Roberto Ramos ()
Additional contact information
Paula Gil: Universidad Complutense
Francisco Martí: Banco de España
Richard Morris: European Central Bank
SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, No 1, 23 pages
Abstract This paper estimates the GDP impact of legislated tax changes in Spain using a newly constructed narrative record for the period 1986–2015. Our baseline estimates suggest that a 1% of GDP increase in exogenous taxes depresses output by around 1.3% after 1 year, this negative effect fading away at more distant horizons. We also find that the effects of changes in indirect taxes are larger and that, following a tax increase, investment reacts more than consumption. Overall, our set of estimates is consistent with negative output effects triggered by tax increases, yet the quantitative effects are subject to non-negligible uncertainty that is reflected in wide confidence bands, in line with the extant literature for other countries.
Keywords: Tax shocks; Narrative record; Fiscal policy; GDP growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E62 H20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13209-018-0173-5 Abstract (text/html)
Working Paper: The output effects of tax changes: narrative evidence from Spain (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:series:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s13209-018-0173-5
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association is currently edited by Nezih Guner
More articles in SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association from Springer, Spanish Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().