A non-parametric Bayesian approach to decompounding from high frequency data

Shota Gugushvili, Frank Meulen () and Peter Spreij ()
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Frank Meulen: Delft University of Technology
Peter Spreij: University of Amsterdam

Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, 2018, vol. 21, issue 1, No 3, 53-79

Abstract: Abstract Given a sample from a discretely observed compound Poisson process, we consider non-parametric estimation of the density $$f_0$$ f 0 of its jump sizes, as well as of its intensity $$\lambda _0.$$ λ 0 . We take a Bayesian approach to the problem and specify the prior on $$f_0$$ f 0 as the Dirichlet location mixture of normal densities. An independent prior for $$\lambda _0$$ λ 0 is assumed to be compactly supported and to possess a positive density with respect to the Lebesgue measure. We show that under suitable assumptions the posterior contracts around the pair $$(\lambda _0,\,f_0)$$ ( λ 0 , f 0 ) at essentially (up to a logarithmic factor) the $$\sqrt{n\Delta }$$ n Δ -rate, where n is the number of observations and $$\Delta $$ Δ is the mesh size at which the process is sampled. The emphasis is on high frequency data, $$\Delta \rightarrow 0,$$ Δ → 0 , but the obtained results are also valid for fixed $$\Delta .$$ Δ . In either case we assume that $$n\Delta \rightarrow \infty .$$ n Δ → ∞ . Our main result implies existence of Bayesian point estimates converging (in the frequentist sense, in probability) to $$(\lambda _0,\,f_0)$$ ( λ 0 , f 0 ) at the same rate. We also discuss a practical implementation of our approach. The computational problem is dealt with by inclusion of auxiliary variables and we develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that samples from the joint distribution of the unknown parameters in the mixture density and the introduced auxiliary variables. Numerical examples illustrate the feasibility of this approach.

Keywords: Compound Poisson process; Non-parametric Bayesian estimation; Posterior contraction rate; High frequency observations; Primary: 62G20; Secondary: 62M30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11203-016-9153-1

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