Capturing Swiss economic confidence

Philipp Wegmueller and Christian Glocker

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2024, vol. 160, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: Abstract Survey data can offer timely information on the current state of the economy and its short-term outlook. In this paper, we propose a “Swiss Economic Confidence Index” (SEC). This is a monthly indicator based on aggregating a selection of individual survey indicators, which we show to have favorable leading properties. Applying simple criteria, we select those surveys from a set of currently more than 250 sentiment indicators. We show that the SEC index provides useful signals on GDP growth in a number of real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercises.

Keywords: Business cycle index; Economic sentiment; Switzerland; Nowcasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C38 C53 C55 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1186/s41937-024-00120-7

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