Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks: goods exports and the appreciation of the Swiss Franc in 2015

Andreas Brunhart () and Martin Geiger ()
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Andreas Brunhart: Liechtenstein Institute
Martin Geiger: Liechtenstein Institute

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2025, vol. 161, issue 1, 1-25

Abstract: Abstract Using granular customs data, we construct a counterfactual of the evolution of Swiss goods exports under the premise that the minimum exchange rate policy would have been continued. We study the adjustment dynamics of aggregate and sectoral goods exports due to the exchange rate shock in January 2015 and examine potential differences between sectors. While Swiss total nominal exports drop in Swiss Franc, they increase in Euro. In real quantities, total exports remain largely unaffected indicating a high degree of resilience of the Swiss export industry. At the sectoral level, we observe a heterogeneous adjustment of exports consistent with varying degrees of supply-side adjustment flexibility.

Keywords: Exchange rate shock; Goods exports; Export sectors; Synthetic control method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F31 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1186/s41937-025-00137-6

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