Risikoanalyse in der Energiewirtschaft

Andreas Willeke
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Andreas Willeke: PreussenElektra AG

Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, 1998, vol. 50, issue 12, 1146-1164

Abstract: Summary Risk analysis by numerical simulation is often recommended in literature as a powerful tool for investment decision making, in particular in the field of investment project appraisal. Despite the obvious advantages the methodology is today not widely used for industrial purposes. Due to the anticipated increase of market volatility after liberalization of the German electricity market risk simulation is seen as an important part of utilities’ risk management. By applying risk simulation on the cost comparison of future power plants practical aspects of the methodology have been tested. The experience gained from practical use shows that due to the existence of commercial computer software risk evaluation by Monte-Carlo-simulation and rank correlation sensitivity analysis should no longer be treated as sophisticated methods for specialists but could easily be used for many tasks of business administration.

Date: 1998
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DOI: 10.1007/BF03371553

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