Die Prognosekraft des Prognoseberichts

Hans Pechtl
Additional contact information
Hans Pechtl: Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität Greifswald

Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, 2000, vol. 52, issue 2, 141-159

Abstract: Summary This paper focuses on management’s forecasts in annual reports as indicators for shareholder value. Content analysis classifies 202 german corporate reports published in 1995 according their prognoses. Regression analyses correlate these forecasts with changes of company’s share-price occurring between shareholders annual meetings in 1995 and 1996. Although the results indicate that management’s prognoses usually offer low information quality, some announcements have predictive power. Statements, which are signalling negative business growth, defensive strategies or a worsening cost position are correlated with diminishing shareholder value. Also, missing information about future earnings can be treated as a negative indicator. Furthermore, clusters of similar forecasting behavior in annual reports are identified, which relate to corresponding changes in shareholder value.

Date: 2000
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF03372611 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:52:y:2000:i:2:d:10.1007_bf03372611

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer.com/journal/41471

DOI: 10.1007/BF03372611

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().