Estimating labor commuting patterns using polytomous response logistic regression

Mark D. Ecker () and Drew Conrad ()
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Mark D. Ecker: University of Northern Iowa
Drew Conrad: University of Northern Iowa

SN Business & Economics, 2023, vol. 3, issue 11, 1-27

Abstract: Abstract A laborshed analysis examines the available workforce that flows from the surrounding communities into a nodal city. Iowa Workforce Development (“IWD”) currently uses employer survey data to create a laborshed study for the largest communities in each of Iowa’s 99 counties. IWD has surveyed 18,428 Iowans from July 2019 to April 2021 to ask how likely these Iowans are to change jobs if they are currently employed, or how apt they are to rejoin the labor force if they are presently unemployed, recently retired or are a homemaker. The likelihood of changing jobs or re-entering the workforce is modeled through a polytomous response logistic regression, using both demographic information and labor market characteristics obtained from the surveyed Iowans. In this study, prediction of individual potential job applicants, together with estimates of workers for each zip code in-commuting to a nodal city, are detailed. In particular, this study estimates the total number of individuals who are eager to change jobs or regain employment, called the Weighted Labor Force (“WLF”), for any desired laborshed in Iowa. The WLF computation is demonstrated for the Cedar Valley Laborshed, which consists of the nodal cities of Waterloo and Cedar Falls in northeastern Iowa.

Keywords: Economic development; Labor force participation rate; Laborshed; Logistic regression; Total adjust labor force; Weighted labor force (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s43546-023-00568-4

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