Price reaction of global economic indicators: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict

Ahmed Mohamed Habib () and Umar Nawaz Kayani ()
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Ahmed Mohamed Habib: Accounting and Finance, Independent Research
Umar Nawaz Kayani: Al-Ain University

SN Business & Economics, 2024, vol. 4, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: Abstract This study investigates the price reaction of global economic indicators due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, particularly Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, wheat, maize, Standard and Poor's (SandP) 500 index, Nasdaq stock composite index, and Dow Jones index. The results during these crises were compared with those before to check for statistical differences. Differences analyses using the Mann–Whitney and Kruskal–Wallis tests were used to accomplish the study aims. The results show that the price distributions of the various economic indicators exhibit significant variations. The results also indicate that the primary cause of these variations was a substantial increase in the mean prices of the economic indicators amidst the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. In addition, the price variations of the Russia–Ukraine conflict crisis were more acute than those of the COVID-19 crisis in terms of global economic indicators, except for the market performance of the Nasdaq composite index. The findings are consistent with the random walk theory and efficient market theory predictions, as prices are not a random process, but are often impacted by events and economic variations. This study provides insights to assist business executives, stakeholders, policy experts, and investors in planning and executing strategies in a timely and accurate manner, which is essential for adapting to changing conditions and boosting competitiveness and sustainability to react successfully to developing difficulties both now and in the future. This study confirms the importance of rationalizing unnecessary expenditure and enhancing energy, food, and market security. Policymakers should work to attract and stimulate green investments and raise awareness of the existing challenges and the need to overcome them through community participation.

Keywords: COVID-19; Russia–Ukraine conflict; Economic crisis; Energy security; Food security; Market indices; Sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s43546-023-00619-w

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