The Determinants of Tunisian Inclusive Growth: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Imtinen Ben Saied () and Hanen Akrout ()
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Imtinen Ben Saied: Sustainable Development, University of Tunis El Manar
Hanen Akrout: Higher Institute of Management of Gabes, Gabes University

SN Operations Research Forum, 2025, vol. 6, issue 4, 1-18

Abstract: Abstract This study investigates the relationship between some factors and inclusive growth in Tunisia from 2006 to 2023 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to assess both short-run and long-run dynamics. Unlike previous research that often emphasizes foreign capital, this analysis focuses on local investment (INV) as a primary engine of economic growth and well being. The model incorporates add-itional variables including trade openness (TR), inflation (INF), foreign direct investment (FDI), electricity production (EP) and natural gas rents (NGR) to provide a comprehensive view of inclusive growth determinants. Using a principal components (PCA), inclusive growth is proxied by two components development (DEV) and well-being (WB). Findings reveal that INV and TR has a statistically significant and positive impact on inclusive growth over the long and short-term. Conversely, INF, FDI, EP and NGR shows a statistically significant and negative effect. Non significant effects concern short-run coefficients of TR and NGR in the case of developpement and only long-run coefficient of EP in the case of well being. Accordingly, policy measures should prioritize investment in infrastructure, industry, and labor-intensive sectors to stimulate productivity and long-term capital accumulation. Inflation should be reduced to minimize inequality and poverty.

Keywords: Inclusive growth; Local investment; Inflation; ARDL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s43069-025-00540-y

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