Dynamic Reflections of Crimes, Quasi Democracy and Misery Index in Pakistan

Abdul Saboor (), Shumaila Sadiq, Atta Ullah Khan and Gulnaz Hameed
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Abdul Saboor: PMAS Arid Agriculture University
Shumaila Sadiq: PMAS Arid Agriculture University
Atta Ullah Khan: Preston University
Gulnaz Hameed: PMAS Arid Agriculture University

Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, 2017, vol. 133, issue 1, No 3, 45 pages

Abstract: Abstract Massive increase in crimes has coexisted with rising inflation and high unemployment for the last couple of decades especially during democratic governments in Pakistan. In this paper, we explore the relationship between crime rate, misery index and democracy in Pakistan from 1975 to 2013. Granger causality test proposed the unidirectional causality running from misery index to crime rate in Pakistan. Estimating the crime function via Pasaran’s conditional error correction model, we found the significant long run equilibrium relationship between Okun’s misery index and crime rate which implies that rising inflation and unemployment rate are the major driving forces towards increasing crime rates in Pakistan. Finally, empirical evidence from Okun’s misery index suggested that people are three times more miserable in quasi democratic periods than that of dictatorship. The Barrow’s misery index model verifies that people are twice worsening in quasi democratic periods. Likewise, reported crimes are nearly twice during quasi democracy than quasi dictatorship. The crime model provided the evidence that people during quasi democratic governments are more likely tending towards crime as compared to quasi dictatorship during the study period in Pakistan. This implicitly advocates the fact that half hearted efforts and ill structured apparatus of democracy can augment the tendency of crime and misery rather than solution of such concerns of the economy.

Keywords: Misery index; Crime rate; Quasi democracy; Granger causality test; ARDL bound test approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s11205-016-1348-8

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