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A Longitudinal Analysis of Riskiness Indicators After the 2008 and 2011 Economic Crises: The Case of Italian Manufacturing

Lucio Masserini (), Matilde Bini and Alessandro Zeli
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Lucio Masserini: University of Pisa
Matilde Bini: European University of Rome
Alessandro Zeli: ISTAT

Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, 2021, vol. 156, issue 2, No 9, 499-513

Abstract: Abstract The Great Recession derived from USA subprime crisis involved the European countries in two different steps: in the first phase, referred to 2008–2009, the finance contraction and the bank failures spread out across the whole Atlantic area involving, above all, the financial market but also influencing the real economy. The second phase, started in 2011 and lasted until 2014–2015, affected the Euro zone and sovereign debts of the countries until 2015 in depth. Also for Italy, the crisis period was characterized by a deep negative conjuncture until 2009, by a slight recovery until the first half of 2011 and by an intense recession from 2011 to 2015. The aim of this work is to collect evidence on the Italian manufacturing system with the following goals: to investigate the riskiness–distress risk trend across industries in 2008–2017 period and to understand how this trend inluences the performance of the company at the end of the period. To perform this analysis a Latent Growth Curve Model is proposed, using an important Italian private database containing the book-value data of the joint-stock company Italian firms.

Keywords: Economic crises; Firms’ riskiness; Latent Growth Curve Model; Longitudinal model; Panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11205-020-02327-6

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