Exploring the Dynamics of the Elderly Population and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis Across Continents

Thaveesha Jayawardhana (), Ruwan Jayathilaka (), Sachini Anuththara (), Thamasha Nimnadi (), Ridhmi Karadanaarachchi () and Kethaka Galappaththi ()
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Thaveesha Jayawardhana: Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology
Ruwan Jayathilaka: Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology
Sachini Anuththara: Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology
Thamasha Nimnadi: Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology
Ridhmi Karadanaarachchi: Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology
Kethaka Galappaththi: Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology

Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, 2024, vol. 173, issue 3, No 1, 543-568

Abstract: Abstract This paper explores the cause-and-effect relationship between the elderly population and global economic growth, focusing on different continents. A panel dataset spanning from 1961 to 2020 is utilized, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serving as the key measure for economic growth, represented as the percentage change in annual GDP. The study specifically centers on individuals aged 65 and above as a percentage of the total population. The analysis employs a Panel Granger causality test to assess the impact of the elderly population on economic growth. The results reveal a unidirectional Granger causality for Africa and Oceania, suggesting a one-way influence from the elderly population to economic growth. Conversely, instances of bidirectional Granger causality are identified for Asia, Europe, North America, and South America, indicating a mutual influence between the elderly population and economic growth during the study period. The study concludes that an endogenous relationship between economic growth and the elderly population emerges, but notably, this relationship becomes apparent only after an economy has completed its transition in economic development. This implies that the dynamics of the elderly population and economic growth are interlinked, with the nature of their interaction becoming more pronounced in the later stages of economic development.

Keywords: Economic growth; Elderly population; Continents; Panel vector autoregression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11205-024-03353-4

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