Employment Trajectories in Early Adulthood and Later Fertility

Silvia Meggiolaro (), Fausta Ongaro () and Marco Tosi ()
Additional contact information
Silvia Meggiolaro: University of Padova
Fausta Ongaro: University of Padova
Marco Tosi: University of Padova

Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, 2025, vol. 179, issue 3, No 8, 1329-1353

Abstract: Abstract The association between employment and fertility is typically studied using single work episodes and transitions between parities, potentially overlooking the complexity of individual trajectories. In this study we examine whether the type of employment trajectories experienced in early adulthood – especially those related to a greater economic vulnerability – is associated with fertility in Italy. Specifically, we focus on cumulated fertility at age 30 (for generations born 1956–1971 and 1972–1986) and completed fertility at age 45 (for generations born 1972–1986). We apply sequence analysis to data from a national representative survey conducted by the National Institute of Statistics in 2016. We use optimal matching and cluster analysis to identify typologies of typical employment trajectories, which serve as key covariates in Poisson models predicting fertility at ages 30 and 45. Among older generations, men and women with prolonged education have fewer children by age 30 than those with other employment trajectories; however, this negative association disappear by age 45. Men with employment trajectories characterised by fixed-term contracts and work interruptions have lower completed fertility, whereas women who never worked have larger families at ages 30 and 45. The relevance of employment trajectories for fertility at age 30 is more pronounced among younger than among older cohorts: the trajectories characterised by unemployment/temporary job or self- employment are associated with higher fertility for women and lower fertility for men. Thus, employment trajectories in early adulthood can predict both timing and quantum of fertility in Italy.

Keywords: Fertility; Employment careers; Sequence analysis; Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-025-03665-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:soinre:v:179:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-025-03665-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11135

DOI: 10.1007/s11205-025-03665-z

Access Statistics for this article

Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement is currently edited by Filomena Maggino

More articles in Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().