Nonlinear models for ground-level ozone forecasting

Silvano Bordignon (), Carlo Gaetan () and Francesco Lisi ()
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Silvano Bordignon: Università di Padova
Carlo Gaetan: Università di Padova

Statistical Methods & Applications, 2002, vol. 11, issue 2, No 8, 227-245

Abstract: Abstract One of the main concerns in air pollution is excessive tropospheric ozone concentration. The aim of this work is to develop statistical models giving shortterm forecasts of future ground-level ozone concentrations. Since there are few physical insights about the dynamic relationship between ozone, precursor emissions and/or meteorological factors, a nonparametric and nonlinear approach seems promising in order to specify the forecast models. First, we apply four nonparametric procedures to forecast daily maximum 1-hour and maximum 8-hour averages of ozone concentrations in an urban area. Then, in order to improve the forecast performances, we combine the time series of the forecasts. This idea seems to give encouraging results.

Keywords: Ground-level ozone forecasting; nonlinear time-series models; combination of forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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DOI: 10.1007/BF02511489

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