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Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy

Guido Bulligan, Lorenzo Burlon (), Davide Delle Monache () and Andrea Silvestrini
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Guido Bulligan: Banca d’Italia

Statistical Methods & Applications, 2019, vol. 28, issue 3, No 14, 569 pages

Abstract: Abstract In this paper we examine the empirical features of both the business and the financial cycle in Italy. We employ univariate and multivariate trend-cycle decompositions based on unobserved component models. Univariate estimates highlight different cyclical properties (persistence, duration and amplitude) of real GDP and real credit to the private sector. Multivariate estimates uncover the presence of feedback effects between the real and the financial cycle. In addition, in the most recent period (2015–2016) the multivariate approach highlights a wider output gap than that estimated by the univariate models considered in this paper.

Keywords: Business cycle; Financial cycle; Unobserved components; Model-based filters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s10260-019-00453-1

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