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When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?

Augusto Cerqua () and Roberta Di Stefano ()
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Roberta Di Stefano: Sapienza University of Rome

Statistical Methods & Applications, 2022, vol. 31, issue 1, No 9, 195 pages

Abstract: Abstract The first cluster of coronavirus cases in Europe was officially detected on 21st February 2020 in Northern Italy, even if recent evidence showed sporadic first cases in Europe since the end of 2019. In this study, we have tested the presence of coronavirus in Italy and, even more importantly, we have assessed whether the virus had already spread sooner than 21st February. We use a counterfactual approach and certified daily data on the number of deaths (deaths from any cause, not only related to coronavirus) at the municipality level. Our estimates confirm that coronavirus began spreading in Northern Italy in mid-January.

Keywords: Coronavirus; Europe; Counterfactual approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s10260-021-00568-4

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