The relative importance of ability, luck and motivation in team sports: a Bayesian model of performance in the English Rugby Premiership

Federico Fioravanti (), Fernando Delbianco () and Fernando Tohmé
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Federico Fioravanti: Instituto de Matemática de Bahía Blanca, CONICET - UNS

Statistical Methods & Applications, 2023, vol. 32, issue 3, No 1, 715-731

Abstract: Abstract Results in contact sports like Rugby are mainly interpreted in terms of the ability and/or luck of teams. But this neglects the important role of the motivation of players, reflected in the effort exerted in the game. Here we present a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer the main features that explain score differences in rugby matches of the English Premiership Rugby 2020/2021 season. The main result is that, indeed, effort (seen as a ratio between the number of tries and the scoring kick attempts) is highly relevant to explain outcomes in those matches.

Keywords: Motivation; Effort; Bayesian; Luck; Ability; Rugby (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10260-022-00677-8

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