A new Bayesian discrepancy measure

Francesco Bertolino (), Mara Manca (), Monica Musio (), Walter Racugno () and Laura Ventura ()
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Francesco Bertolino: University of Cagliari
Mara Manca: University of Cagliari
Monica Musio: University of Cagliari
Walter Racugno: University of Cagliari
Laura Ventura: University of Padua

Statistical Methods & Applications, 2024, vol. 33, issue 2, No 2, 405 pages

Abstract: Abstract The aim of this article is to make a contribution to the Bayesian procedure of testing precise hypotheses for parametric models. For this purpose, we define the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure that allows one to evaluate the suitability of a given hypothesis with respect to the available information (prior law and data). To summarise this information, the posterior median is employed, allowing a simple assessment of the discrepancy with a fixed hypothesis. The Bayesian Discrepancy Measure assesses the compatibility of a single hypothesis with the observed data, as opposed to the more common comparative approach where a hypothesis is rejected in favour of a competing hypothesis. The proposed measure of evidence has properties of consistency and invariance. After presenting the definition of the measure for a parameter of interest, both in the absence and in the presence of nuisance parameters, we illustrate some examples showing its conceptual and interpretative simplicity. Finally, we compare a test procedure based on the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure, with the Full Bayesian Significance Test, a well-known Bayesian testing procedure for sharp hypotheses.

Keywords: Bayesian test; Evidence; Precise hypothesis; Significance test; Full Bayesian significance test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10260-024-00745-1

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