The use of multiple systems estimation to estimate the number of unattributed paintings by Modigliani

James Edward Jackson () and Brian Francis ()
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James Edward Jackson: The Alan Turing Institute
Brian Francis: Lancaster University

Statistical Methods & Applications, 2025, vol. 34, issue 1, No 2, 37 pages

Abstract: Abstract The number of unattributed paintings by Amedeo Modigliani is estimated, using the method of multiple systems estimation (MSE). Most major artists’ works are listed in one catalogue raisonné, but there are five catalogues purporting to list Modigliani paintings. These can be treated as list sources from which MSE can be applied. We obtain estimates by following the classical MSE approach using log-linear models, and compare these with estimates obtained via a Bayesian non-parametric latent class approach. We also consider the impact of fake paintings through sensitivity analyses. Our estimates point to there being around 20–120 unattributed Modigliani paintings.

Keywords: Multiple Systems Estimation; Capture-recapture; Amedeo Modigliani; Catalogue Raisonné; Art history (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10260-024-00774-w

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