A Systems Thinking Approach to Investigating Complex Sugarcane Supply and Processing Systems: Integrating Rich Pictures and Bayesian Networks

Mduduzi Innocent Shongwe ()
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Mduduzi Innocent Shongwe: University of KwaZulu-Natal

Systemic Practice and Action Research, 2018, vol. 31, issue 1, No 4, 75-85

Abstract: Abstract Diagnosing problems in complex systems such as integrated sugarcane supply and processing systems (ISSPS) calls for a systematic approach. This is vital given the numerous stakeholders and their various (sometimes conflicting) objectives. Since ISSPS are socially constructed, most diagnostic interventions in the system should consider participatory approaches; developing a shared understanding of the issues and decision-making processes. Failure to source and simultaneously accommodate stakeholder perspectives often leads to interventions on wrong issues and subsequently, policy resistance. Given the context, a diagnostic study was undertaken at a sugarcane milling area in Swaziland to identify problems affecting the ISSPS. Interviews were conducted with relevant stakeholders and issues affecting the area were modelled as a rich picture and communicated back to the stakeholders in a report-back meeting held at the milling area. Excessive rainfall, harvest-to-crush delays, sugarcane quality, harvesting and haulage schedules, and machine breakdown were some of the issues identified to affect the milling area. It was recommended in the report-back meeting that machine breakdown be considered for further analysis hence, a Bayesian model for a shredder breakdown was developed. The Bayesian model estimated the probability of shredder breakdown to be to be 0.124. Furthermore, the months of April and May appeared more susceptible than the other months. It was recommended that further analysis of shredder breakdown be conducted, especially alongside rainfall, preventative maintenance and skills of the maintenance personnel. It was also recommended that further research be conducted towards developing strategies that could be used to ensure reliable sugarcane supply at the factory, especially during periods of extreme rainfall. A stockpile feasibility study that considers factors that contributed to the termination of the previous stockpile system could provide some direction.

Keywords: Complexity; Systems thinking; Modelling; Rich pictures; Bayesian updating (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s11213-017-9418-7

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