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Specifications tests for count time series models with covariates

Šárka Hudecová (), Marie Hušková () and Simos G. Meintanis ()
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Šárka Hudecová: Charles University
Marie Hušková: Charles University
Simos G. Meintanis: National and Kapodistrian University of Athens

TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, 2024, vol. 33, issue 4, No 2, 1014-1040

Abstract: Abstract We propose a goodness-of-fit test for a class of count time series models with covariates which includes the Poisson autoregressive model with covariates (PARX) as a special case. The test criteria are derived from a specific characterization for the conditional probability generating function, and the test statistic is formulated as a $$L_2$$ L 2 weighting norm of the corresponding sample counterpart. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistic are provided under the null hypothesis as well as under specific alternatives. A bootstrap version of the test is explored in a Monte–Carlo study and illustrated on a real data set on road safety.

Keywords: Count time series with covariates; PARX; INGARCH-X; Goodness-of-fit test; Probability generating function; Bootstrap test; 62M10; 62F03 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11749-024-00933-x

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