Water Consumption Prediction of Istanbul City by Using Fuzzy Logic Approach

Abdüsselam Altunkaynak (), Mehmet Özger and Mehmet Çakmakci

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2005, vol. 19, issue 5, 654 pages

Abstract: This paper presents a Takagi Sugeno (TS) fuzzy method for predicting future monthly water consumption values from three antecedent water consumption amounts, which are considered as independent variables. Mean square error (MSE) values for different model configurations are obtained, and the most effective model is selected. It is expected that this model will be more extensively used than Markov or ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) models commonly available for stochastic modeling and predictions. The TS fuzzy model does not have restrictive assumptions such as the stationarity and ergodicity which are primary requirements for the stochastic modeling. The TS fuzzy model is applied to monthly water consumption fluctuations of Istanbul city in Turkey. In the prediction procedure only lag one is considered. It is observed that the TS fuzzy model preserves the statistical properties. This model also helps to make predictions with less than 10% relative error. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Keywords: fluctuation; fuzzy logic; Markov; prediction; water consumption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-005-7371-1

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