A neuro-fuzzy model for inflow forecasting of the Nile river at Aswan high dam

Ahmed El-Shafie, Mahmoud Taha () and Aboelmagd Noureldin

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2007, vol. 21, issue 3, 533-556

Abstract: River flow forecasting is an essential procedure that is necessary for proper reservoir operation. Accurate forecasting results in good control of water availability, refined operation of reservoirs and improved hydropower generation. Therefore, it becomes crucial to develop forecasting models for river inflow. Several approaches have been proposed over the past few years based on stochastic modeling or artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. In this article, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model is proposed to forecast the inflow for the Nile River at Aswan High Dam (AHD) on monthly basis. A major advantage of the fuzzy system is its ability to deal with imprecision and vagueness in inflow database. The ANFIS model divides the input space into fuzzy sub-spaces and maps the output using a set of linear functions. A historical database of monthly inflows at AHD recorded over the past 130 years is used to train the ANFIS model and test its performance. The performance of the ANFIS model is compared to a recently developed artificial neural networks (ANN) model. The results show that the ANFIS model was capable of providing higher inflow forecasting accuracy specially at extreme inflow events compared with that of the ANN model. It is concluded that the ANFIS model can be quite beneficial in water management of Lake Nasser reservoir at AHD. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Keywords: Inflow forecasting; Reservoir management; Fuzzy systems; Neuro-fuzzy systems; Nile river (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (29)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-006-9027-1 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:21:y:2007:i:3:p:533-556

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-006-9027-1

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().