Stochastic Prediction of Drought Class Transitions

Ana Paulo and Luis Pereira ()

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2008, vol. 22, issue 9, 1277-1296

Abstract: This paper aims at the stochastic characterization of droughts applying Markov chains modeling to drought class transitions derived from SPI time series. Several sites in Southern Portugal having updated data on precipitation available were considered. The drought class probabilities, the expected residence time in each class of severity, the expected time for the transition between drought classes and the drought severity class predictions 1, 2, or 3 months ahead have been obtained. Those predictions are then compared with observed drought classes for the recent drought periods of 2003–2006. In addition, the estimation of the cumulated precipitation deficits, amount of monthly precipitation needed to decrease drought severity, and foreseen SPI values depending on different precipitation scenarios are also presented as complementing the prediction of drought class transitions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Keywords: Markov chains; Standardized Precipitation Index; Stochastic modeling; Rainfall deficits; Portugal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-007-9225-5 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:22:y:2008:i:9:p:1277-1296

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-007-9225-5

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().