Development of a Dynamic Long-Term Water Allocation Model for Agriculture and Industry Water Demands

Akbar Karimi () and Reza Ardakanian ()

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2010, vol. 24, issue 9, 1717-1746

Abstract: Demands growth and water resources limitation, enforce water sector policy makers to integrate water supply–demand interactions in a coherent framework for efficient water allocation. Water supply–demand interaction, changes long-term trend of water demands, which in turn has a substantial influence on water allocation. Researches on water allocation modeling lack adequate projection of relationship between water supply and demand. Socio-economic factors representing water allocation stakeholders’ benefits, account for the main share of water supply–demand interaction. Identification, representation and consideration of these factors in a water allocation model, is the main limitation of researches on this issue. In this paper a new long-term water allocation model at basin level is developed and introduced. This model considers water supply–demand interaction in agriculture and industry sectors, by use of socio-economic parameters; such as, production, cultivated land area, revenue and employment. The model main advantage is its ability to reflect the interrelationship between essential hydro-system and supply–demand components. It can explore both socio-economic and water allocation consequences of various policy choices. The model is used to assess two different development policies at basin level. The first one is fourth 5-year development plan of Iran, which fixes predefined growth rate for different sectors. The second one assumes the present state continues up to the end of planning horizon. A typical multi-reservoir water basin is modeled and analyzed for two policies. Indices that summarize long-term state of hydro-system and stakeholders are defined and used in policies assessment and decision making. Results of these assessments show fourth 5-year development policy provides opportunities for substantial improvement in water allocation and stakeholders’ benefits. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Keywords: Water resources; Supply–demand; Consumption efficiency; Socio-economic; Employment; Multi-reservoir (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9521-3

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