Precipitation Forecasting Using Wavelet-Genetic Programming and Wavelet-Neuro-Fuzzy Conjunction Models

Ozgur Kisi and Jalal Shiri ()

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2011, vol. 25, issue 13, 3135-3152

Abstract: Forecasting precipitation as a major component of the hydrological cycle is of primary importance in water resources engineering, planning and management as well as in scheduling irrigation practices. In the present study the abilities of hybrid wavelet-genetic programming [i.e. wavelet-gene-expression programming, WGEP] and wavelet-neuro-fuzzy (WNF) models for daily precipitation forecasting are investigated. In the first step, the single genetic programming (GEP) and neuro-fuzzy (NF) models are applied to forecast daily precipitation amounts based on previously recorded values, but the results are very weak. In the next step the hybrid WGEP and WNF models are used by introducing the wavelet coefficients as GEP and NF inputs, but no satisfactory results are produced, even though the accuracies increased to a great extent. In the third step, the new WGEP and WNF models are built; by merging the best single and hybrid models’ inputs and introducing them as the models inputs. The results show the new hybrid WGEP models are effective in forecasting daily precipitation, while the new WNF models are unable to learn the non linear process of precipitation very well. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Keywords: Precipitation; Genetic programming; Neuro-fuzzy; Wavelet; Modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9849-3

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