Long-Term Runoff Modeling Using Rainfall Forecasts with Application to the Iguaçu River Basin

Alexandre Evsukoff (), Beatriz Lima and Nelson Ebecken

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2011, vol. 25, issue 3, 963-985

Abstract: This work presents the development of a rainfall-runoff model for the Iguaçu River basin in southern Brazil. The model was developed to support the operation planning of hydroelectric power plants and is intended to predict the natural flow based on meteorological rain forecasts. A recurrent fuzzy system model was employed with parameters estimated by a genetic algorithm using observed rainfall as input. The model performs well using observed rainfall as input; however, its performance using predicted rainfall as input decays with the forecasting horizon, illustrating the effect of meteorological prediction errors. The prototype implementing the model has been used for dispatch planning by the Brazilian Electric System Operator. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Keywords: Rainfall-runoff model; Catchments; Runoff; Recurrent fuzzy system; Data mining (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:25:y:2011:i:3:p:963-985

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9736-3

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