Comparability Analyses of the SPI and RDI Meteorological Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones

Davar Khalili (), Tohid Farnoud (), Hamed Jamshidi (), Ali Kamgar-Haghighi () and Shahrokh Zand-Parsa ()

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2011, vol. 25, issue 6, 1737-1757

Abstract: Comparability analyses are performed to investigate similarities/differences of the standard precipitation index (SPI) and the reconnaissance drought index (RDI), respectively, utilizing precipitation and ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration (ET 0 ). Data are from stations with different climatic conditions in Iran. Drought characteristics of the 3-month, 6-month and annual SPI and RDI time series are developed and Markov chain order dependencies are investigated by the Log-likelihood, AIC and BIC tests. Steady state probabilities and Markov chain characteristics, i.e., expected residence time in different drought classes and time to reach “Near Normal” class are investigated. According to results, both indices exhibit an overall similar behaviour; particularly, they follow the first order Markov chain dependency. However, climatic variability may produce some differences. In several cases, the “Extremely Dry” class has received a more critical value by RDI. Furthermore, the expected residence time of “Near Normal” class and expected time to reach “Near Normal” class are quite different in a number of cases. The results show that the RDI by utilizing the ET 0 can be very sensitive to climatic variability. This is rather important, since if the drought analyses are for agricultural applications, utilization of the RDI would seem to serve a better purpose. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Keywords: Comparability analyses; SPI; RDI; Drought characteristics; Markov chain; Log-likelihood; AIC and BIC tests (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (28)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9772-z

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