Prediction of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations by Using Analytical, Linear Statistic and Intelligent Methods

Hossein Kakahaji (), Hamed Banadaki (), Abbas Kakahaji () and Abdulamir Kakahaji ()

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2013, vol. 27, issue 13, 4469-4492

Abstract: Undoubtedly, the most significant factor with wise decision making and designing hydrological structures along the lake coasts is an accurate model of lake level changes. This issue becomes more and more important as recent global climate changes have completely reformed the behavior of traditional lake level fluctuations. Subsequently, estimating lake levels becomes more important and at the same time more difficult. This paper deals with modeling lake level changes of Lake Urmia located in north-west of Iran, in terms of both simulator and predictor models. According to this, two traditional simulator models based on water budget are developed which benefit from most effective components on water budget namely precipitation, evaporation, inflow and the lake level antecedents, as model inputs. Most famous linear modeling tools, Autoregressive with exogenous input (ARX) and Box-Jenkins (BJ) models are employed with the same mentioned inputs for prediction purpose. In addition, two other methods that are, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network and also Local Linear Neuro-Fuzzy (LLNF) are applied to investigate capability of intelligent nonlinear methods for lake level changes prediction. All models performances are indicated using both graph and numerical illustrations and results are discussed. Comparative results reveal that the intelligent methods are superior to traditional models for modeling lake level behavior as complex hydrological phenomena. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Keywords: Urmia Lake; Lake level; Simulation; Prediction; PNN; LLNF (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-013-0420-2 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:13:p:4469-4492

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0420-2

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().